Escalating heat stress driven by climate change threatens to strip Sri Lanka of hundreds of thousands of productive working years over the coming decades.
A new report published by the International Labour Organisation reveals that rising temperatures could eliminate the equivalent of up to 349,000 full-time jobs each year by 2060.
The study benchmarks future projections against historical data from 1985 to 2014, warning of severe economic consequences across multiple sectors as extreme heat curtails daily labour capacity.
Severe economic hits across key industries
The economic damage caused by thermal discomfort is already registering across the island.
In 2023 alone, heat-induced productivity drops cost the national economy an estimated USD 6.5 billion in fixed 2015 terms, translating to a loss of more than 120,000 full-time positions.
While outdoor manual labourers in agriculture and construction face extreme physical strain, the service sector absorbed the largest direct hit to economic output, accounting for nearly 42 percent of total financial losses.
Transport, trade, and manufacturing also suffered notable downturns as excessive heat forced employees to slow their pace or take frequent breaks to avert heat-related illnesses.
Proposed policy measures
To safeguard the domestic workforce, the report advises authorities to adopt comprehensive national workplace regulations that align with international safety standards.
It emphasizes the enforcement of ILO Convention No. 155 on occupational safety and health, alongside Convention No. 161, to ensure employers implement preventive measures against heat illness.
The severity of future working-hour losses will depend on global greenhouse gas reduction efforts and local adaptation measures.
Under a low-emissions scenario based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, annual job losses could be limited to 158,000, whereas unchecked emissions will push productivity decline to its upper forecast.
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