Sri Lanka could experience above-average rainfall from October 2026 as a potentially exceptionally strong El Niño develops, according to a recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on Asia and the Pacific.
The FAO has identified Sri Lanka among the countries where the wetter-than-average signal is expected to become increasingly important from October.
The timing is significant, as October and November coincide with Sri Lanka’s Second Inter-Monsoon, one of the country’s wettest periods. This is followed by the Northeast Monsoon from December through February, when a substantial share of the island’s annual rainfall is typically received.
According to the FAO, rainfall during the Second Inter-Monsoon is generally widespread across Sri Lanka but can also become locally intense, increasing the importance of early monitoring and preparedness.
The report notes that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will also play a role in determining rainfall patterns. A strengthening positive IOD could contribute to wetter conditions, similar to the potential influence identified for Pakistan.
The FAO says current forecasts increasingly point towards a very strong El Niño, which could potentially rank among the strongest events recorded historically and continue into 2027.
However, the organisation cautions that the strength of El Niño alone will not determine its impact. The consequences will depend on how rainfall and temperature changes interact with agricultural calendars, water availability, vulnerable livelihoods and communities’ ability to cope with climate shocks.
The potential risks extend beyond weather conditions to food security across the region.
The FAO estimates that an additional 8.2 million people could face acute food insecurity across a number of monitored countries in Asia and the Pacific, while the actual number could be higher.
While risks are already emerging, the report says widespread impacts have yet to materialise, leaving a limited opportunity for governments and humanitarian organisations to prepare.
The FAO warns that some of the most serious effects on agriculture and food security may only become evident towards the latter part of 2026 and during 2027.
It therefore calls for governments, humanitarian organisations and development partners to strengthen monitoring, preparedness, anticipatory measures and response efforts before potential losses become entrenched.
The situation is further complicated by pressure on food, fuel and fertiliser prices. The FAO notes that urea prices more than doubled at their peak, while food and fuel costs remain elevated.
The combination could create a cascading shock, in which climate-related production losses contribute to higher food prices and worsening food insecurity across the region in late 2026 and 2027.
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